Monrovia- Liberia finds itself at the center of a high-stakes strategic decision: how to manage access to its railway and port infrastructure in a way that maximizes national benefit while maintaining diplomatic balance.
Monrovia– Liberia finds itself at the center of a high-stakes strategic decision: how to manage access to its railway and port infrastructure in a way that maximizes national benefit while maintaining diplomatic balance.
At the heart of the debate is the Yekepa-Buchanan railway, an asset that has long fueled Liberia’s post-war recovery and remains critical to its economic future.
ArcelorMittal Mittal Liberia on the one had has invested more the $800 million to make the railway operable since 2005.
But the latest challenge comes from High Power Exploration (HPX), the mining venture that is aggressively seeking permission to use Liberia’s rail system to transport iron ore from Guinea’s Nimba deposit. Despite ArcelorMittal’s towering investment, HPX has vowed it cannot allow ArcelorMittal to be the operator of the railway even though HPX, its subsidiary Ivanhoe Atlantic have not invested a dime in the rail line and it has not gotten any formal approval from Guinea for ore transit through Liberia.
On the surface, the proposal suggests new revenue opportunities for Liberia, but beneath it lies a web of geopolitical and economic risks that could shape the region.
Though HPX is lobbying hard in Liberia, its ambitions depend entirely on Guinea’s consent—something Conakry has yet to grant. With its own $15 billion infrastructure plan in motion, including a 670-kilometer railway and a deep-water port at Moribayah, Guinea has made clear that it intends to control its own mineral exports. The question remains: Why would Guinea allow HPX to bypass its infrastructure in favor of a route through Liberia?
An official in Liberia’s Ministry of Mines and Energy acknowledged the uncertainty: “HPX is negotiating as if Guinea has already agreed, but the reality is different. If Liberia commits without clear approval from Guinea, we risk entangling ourselves in a diplomatic and economic dilemma.”
HPX’s push comes with a history of unconventional dealings, including its controversial $35 million payment to the George Weah administration—an arrangement made outside of any officially ratified agreement. Now, with no clear evidence of Guinea’s approval, Liberia faces the risk of granting rail access to a company that may not have the legal authority to transport ore across borders.
For Liberia, the decision extends beyond a single deal. It is a test of the nation’s ability to protect its resources, set investment standards, and avoid being used as a mere transit corridor while others reap the full economic benefits.
Liberia must leverage its position wisely. The government must demand ironclad guarantees—clear, official documentation proving Guinea’s approval—before moving forward with any agreement. Anything less would mean risking its infrastructure, its sovereignty, and its long-term economic strategy for a deal that may never materialize.
This is not just about rail access; it is about Liberia asserting its authority in regional economic affairs. Will Liberia make a deal on its own terms, or will it allow external forces to dictate its future?
As the government engages in negotiations, it must remain clear-eyed about HPX’s true intent—using Liberia solely as a transit route for Guinean iron ore. This arrangement, by itself, offers little in terms of job creation or long-term economic benefits for Liberians.
Unlike full-scale mining operations that generate employment and local investment, merely transporting ore through the country does not create a meaningful number of jobs or significant value addition to the economy.
Therefore, Liberia’s utmost interest must be safeguarded in all discussions, ensuring that any agreement secures tangible benefits—whether through revenue-sharing mechanisms, infrastructure upgrades, or broader economic opportunities—rather than allowing the nation’s critical assets to be exploited with little return.
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